stock market Bryan R. Smith/Getty Images

全球复苏的下行性风险

发自纽约——虽然全球经济在过去两年间持续增长,但其实一直在快速扩张和减速之间来回摇摆。而在此期间曾出现过两种特殊事件导致美国和全球股票价格下跌约10%。这是否意味着是某种模式正在浮现,还是断断续续的全球性复苏正在走向稳定?

第一个事件发生在2015年8~9月,当时许多观察家担心中国的经济可能会出现硬着陆。第二个事件则出现在2016年1~2月,也源自对中国的担忧。但投资者也越来越担心美国经济停滞,石油和商品价格崩溃,美联储快速加息,以及欧洲和日本的非常规负利率货币政策。

每个减速事件都持续了大约两个月,在这个时候,股票价格的调整开始扭转。投资者的恐惧并未得到证实,各大央行开始放松货币政策;或者,在美联储方面,暂时中止了加息动作。

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