stock market Bryan R. Smith/Getty Images

التعافي العالمي ومخاطر الجانب السلبي

نيويورك ــ على مدار العامين المنصرمين، كان الاقتصاد العالمي ينمو، ولكنه كان متأرجحا بين فترات من التوسع السريع والتباطؤ. وخلال هذه الفترة، تسبب حدثان بشكل خاص في هبوط أسعار الأسهم الأميركية والعالمية بنحو 10%. فهل نشهد نشوء نمط جديد، أو أن التعافي العالمي المتقطع مهيأ للاستقرار؟

كان الحدث الأول في الفترة من أغسطس/آب إلى سبتمبر/أيلول 2015، عندما خشي العديد من المراقبين أن يكون اقتصاد الصين متجها نحو هبوط حاد. وكان الحدث الثاني في الفترة من يناير/كانون الثاني إلى فبراير/شباط 2016 ناجما أيضا عن مخاوف بشأن الصين. ولكن المستثمرين أيضا كانوا قلقين بشكل متزايد إزاء النمو المتوقف في الولايات المتحدة، وانهيار أسعار النفط والسلع الأساسية، وارتفاع أسعار فائدة بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأميركي بسرعة، فضلا عن السياسات النقدية غير التقليدية وأسعار الفائدة السلبية في أوروبا واليابان.

دام التباطؤ في كل من الفترتين نحو شهرين، وبالتالي بدأ تصحيح أسعار الأسهم ينقلب في الاتجاه المعاكس. ولم تتحقق مخاوف المستثمرين، كما بدأت البنوك المركزية تعمل على تخفيف سياساتها النقدية، أو في حالة بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي، تعليق رفع أسعار الفائدة مؤقتا.

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