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全球经济的不确定未来

伦敦—2018年初,世界经济将大部经历了同步的周期性复苏,似乎预示着更长时期的可持续复苏和2008年崩溃以来长达十年的衰退的终结。尽管有英国脱欧冲击、中东和朝鲜半岛疑云、反覆无常的美国总统特朗普等事件,但投资和工资的增长以及失业率的下降似乎就在眼前。

但是,我在1月警告说:“全球情绪[已经]从担心政治风险转向了健忘,尽管诸多此类风险依然存在。”此外,尽管我所喜欢的全球指标看上去都大有起色,但我仍然担心2018年下半年能否维持势头,因为发达经济体特别是美国货币政策紧缩等复杂问题可期。

你看,我们现在已经度过了2018年上半年,其中一些指标看上去已经不那么美好了。美国供应管理协会(US Institute for Supply Management)6月采购经理人指数(PMI)仍然强势,但全球可比调查结果和六个月前相比已经不再那么坚挺。更重要的是,中国和欧洲的商业活动都出现了放缓。

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