L’economia globale è capace di autocontrollo?

NEW YORK – L’economia mondiale sta vivendo un difficile inizio d’anno. Le borse sono in forte calo, le economie emergenti vacillano in risposta alla drastica diminuzione dei prezzi delle materie prime, i flussi di migranti continuano a destabilizzare l’Europa, la crescita della Cina ha registrato un netto rallentamento in seguito a un’inversione del flusso di capitale e una sopravvalutazione della moneta, e gli Stati Uniti sono in piena paralisi politica. Un pugno di banchieri centrali sta faticando a mantenere in piedi l’economia mondiale. 

Per sfuggire a questo caos, dovremmo ispirarci ai seguenti quattro principi. Innanzitutto, il progresso economico globale dipende da risparmi e investimenti elevati a livello mondiale. In secondo luogo, il risparmio e i flussi d’investimento andrebbero considerati in un’ottica globale, non nazionale. Terzo, la piena occupazione dipende dalla corrispondenza tra cospicui investimenti e risparmi elevati. Quarto, un alto livello di investimenti privati da parte delle aziende dipende da ingenti investimenti pubblici nelle infrastrutture e nel capitale umano. Ma vediamoli nello specifico.     

In primo luogo, il nostro obiettivo globale dovrebbe essere il progresso economico, inteso come miglioramento delle condizioni di vita in tutto il mondo. Di fatto, tale obiettivo è stato incluso tra i nuovi Obiettivi di sviluppo sostenibile approvati lo scorso settembre da tutti i 193 paesi membri delle Nazioni Unite. Il progresso dipende da un elevato investimento a livello globale nello sviluppo di competenze, tecnologia e capitale fisico, volto a migliorare il tenore di vita. Nello sviluppo economico, come nella vita, niente è gratis: senza cospicui investimenti in know-how, competenze, macchinari e infrastrutture sostenibili, la produttività tende a scemare (soprattutto per via del deprezzamento), facendo peggiorare il tenore di vita.  

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