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A resiliência surpreendente da economia global

LONDRES – Os desconcertantes desenvolvimentos políticos nos Estados Unidos e no Reino Unido podem levar à conclusão de que uma economia mundial já contestada irá debater-se ainda mais a curto prazo. Mas à medida que avançamos em 2017, a evidência cíclica realmente sugere o contrário.

Desde os meus dias como economista-chefe da Goldman Sachs, que tenho estado atento a seis indicadores mundiais que, em conjunto, fornecem uma visão confiável de como a economia global será nos próximos seis meses. Neste momento, todos os seis indicadores revelam ser mais promissores, o que não acontecia há algum tempo, e apenas um deles caiu ligeiramente de uma recente subida.

O primeiro indicador refere-se aos pedidos de subsídio de desemprego semanais nos EUA, a partir do qual se pode medir a força global da economia dos EUA. Os economistas estão devidamente preparados para tratarem o desemprego como sendo um indicador de atraso, mas estes dados também podem ser úteis na previsão de um futuro próximo. Os pedidos de subsídios de desemprego nos EUA estão sempre atualizados, uma vez que são produzidos semanalmente, e os dados estatísticos sugerem que são um indicador importante para os preços das ações dos EUA. Na semana passada, os pedidos de subsídio de desemprego mantiveram-se baixos, à semelhança do que tem acontecido há algum tempo, o que representa um bom augúrio para os mercados de ações dos EUA.

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