Business woman Thomas Barwick/Getty Images

L’étonnante résilience de l’économie mondiale

LONDRES – La survenance d’événements politiques déconcertants aux États-Unis et au Royaume-Uni pourrait nous amener à conclure que l’économie mondiale, d’ores et déjà éprouvée, est vouée à peiner encore davantage à moyen terme. Or, à mesure que se poursuit l’année 2017, les indicateurs cycliques semblent contredire cette hypothèse.

Depuis mes premières heures au poste d’économiste en chef de Goldman Sachs, j’ai pour habitude de garder un œil sur six indicateurs mondiaux qui, considérés ensemble, fournissent une photographie fiable de ce à quoi ressemblera l’économie globale pour les six mois suivants. Or, chacun de ces six indicateurs se révèlent plus prometteurs qu’ils ne l’ont été depuis un certain temps, un seul de ces indicateurs ayant enregistré une légère baisse par rapport à un niveau récemment élevé.

Le premier de ces indicateurs réside dans le nombre de demandes d’assurance-chômage enregistrées chaque semaine aux États-Unis, qui permet de jauger la solidité globale de l’économie américaine. Bien que les économistes soient à juste titre formés pour considérer le chômage comme un indicateur retardé, les données en la matière peuvent se révéler utiles pour prévoir l’avenir proche. Aux États-Unis, le nombre de revendications au chômage est systématiquement à jour, dans la mesure où il est estimé chaque semaine, plusieurs données statistiques suggérant également que ce chiffre constitue un indicateur majeur du cours des actions dans le pays. La semaine dernière, les demandes liées au chômage se sont maintenues à un niveau relativement faible, comme c’est le cas depuis un certain temps, ce qui est de bonne augure pour les marchés boursiers aux États-Unis.

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