Business woman Thomas Barwick/Getty Images

全球经济恢复力令人惊喜

伦敦—美国和英国的令人不安的政治发展动向可能让我们觉得已经面临重重挑战的世界经济在短期内将特别艰难。但随着2017年的深入,周期性证据表明正好相反。

自我担任高盛公司首席经济学家以来,我一直关注全世界的六个指标,它们一起构成未来六个月全球经济动向的可靠指南。目前,所有者六个指标都要比一段时间以来更加令人振奋,并且只有一个从近期高点略有下跌。

第一个指标是美国周失业数字,它表明美国经济的整体强度。经济学家受到正确的训练,将失业看作滞后指标,但这些数据对于预测近期未来也很有用。美国失业报告总是最新值,因为它们每周都要更新,统计证据表明,它们是美国股价的领先指标。上周,失业数字仍然非常低,这一状态已经保持了一段时间,对美国股市是利好。

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