Globale wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit oder Pleite

Laut Schätzungen der Vereinten Nationen, ist die Weltwirtschaft im letzten Jahr um 3,8 % gewachsen und setzt damit die starke Leistung fort, die seit 2003 zu verzeichnen ist. Angeführt von China und Indien stachen die Entwicklungsländer mit einem Durchschnittswachstum von 6,5 % für 2006 unter den am besten abschneidenden Volkswirtschaften hervor. Doch kann dieses scheinbar günstige Muster des globalen Wachstums von Dauer sein? Besonders zumal das Wachstum weltweit von einem immer größeren finanziellen Ungleichgewicht begleitet wird.

Das durchschnittliche Wachstum in den rückständigsten Entwicklungsländern, viele davon in Afrika, erreichte im letzten Jahr fast 7 %. Die größte Volkswirtschaft der Welt, die Vereinigten Staaten, wuchs um 3,2 %, und auch im zuvor trägen Japan und Europa hat sich das Wachstum erholt. Diese Trends sind im Lichte der Schocks durch den Anstieg der Ölpreise, die Kriege in Afghanistan und im Irak, den internationalen Terrorismus und das Scheitern der multilateralen Handelsgespräche beachtlich.

Die starke Wirtschaftsleistung spiegelt die starke Binnennachfrage in den USA infolge der niedrigen Kreditkosten und steigenden Preise von Vermögenswerten wider. Dadurch sind die Exporte von Industriewaren auf der ganzen Welt gestiegen und die Inflation wurde niedrig gehalten, was seinerseits die Nachfrage nach Energie und Rohstoffen aus den Entwicklungsländern angekurbelt und somit die Rohstoffpreise in die Höhe getrieben hat, wovon viele arme Länder profitiert haben. Die in Ostasien erwirtschafteten Ersparnisse und die großen Ölexporteure haben die globale Liquidität gesteigert und somit den USA bei der Finanzierung ihres aktuellen Leistungsbilanzdefizits geholfen, das derzeit einen Höchststand erreicht hat.

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