Sans coopération économique mondiale, la faillite menace !

Selon des estimations des Nations unies, la croissance de l’économie mondiale s’élevait à 3,8 pour cent l’an dernier, dans la lignée des bons résultats enregistrés depuis 2003. Menés par la Chine et l’Inde, les pays émergents figuraient au premier plan des économies les plus performantes, avec une croissance moyenne de 6,5 pour cent en 2006. La question se pose toutefois de savoir si cette croissance mondiale peut se poursuivre, en particulier en tenant compte du fait qu’elle s’accompagne de déséquilibres financiers mondiaux toujours plus grands.

La croissance annuelle moyenne des pays les moins développés, en Afrique notamment, s’élevait à près de 7 pour cent l’an dernier. La croissance des Etats-Unis, la principale économie mondiale, atteignait 3,2 pour cent, et l’on a pu noter une reprise des économies léthargiques du Japon et de l’Europe. Ces tendances sont d’autant plus remarquables qu’elles interviennent dans un contexte de chocs successifs – la hausse du prix du pétrole, les guerres en Afghanistan et en Irak, le terrorisme international et l’impasse des négociations commerciales multilatérales.

Les bonnes performances économiques reflètent une forte demande intérieure aux Etats-Unis, liée au faible taux du crédit et à la hausse des prix des actifs. Cette tendance a encouragé les exportations dans le monde et contribué à contrôler l’inflation, ce qui à son tour a relancé la demande des pays émergents pour les matières premières et énergétiques, poussant à la hausse le prix des matières premières, au bénéfice de nombreux pays pauvres. L’épargne réalisée en Asie de l’Est et par les principaux pays exportateurs de pétrole a accru les liquidités en circulation, et contribué à financer le déficit de la balance courante des Etats-Unis, qui a atteint des niveaux sans précédent.

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