全球经济合作还是破裂

根据联合国的估计,去年全球经济增长了3.8%,继续了自2003年以来的强劲表现。以中国和印度为首的发展中国家在表现最佳的国家中尤其突出,它们在2006年平均增长了6.5%。但是这个显然是良性的全球增长态势会一直持续下去吗,尤其是我们必须看到这一增长伴随着越来越大的全球金融的不平衡?

去年主要是在非洲的最不发达国家的年平均增长达到了大约7%。世界上最大的经济体美国增长了3.2%,甚至以前处于呆滞状态的日本和欧洲也出现了增长。考虑到这些增长是在油价的暴涨、阿富汗和伊拉克的战争、全球的恐怖主义以及多边贸易谈判破裂的状况下取得的,这些态势尤其引人瞩目。

强劲的经济表现反映了美国因为低廉的借款成本和提升的资产价格而带来的强劲的国内需求。这提高了全球制造业的出口并且抑制了通货膨胀,它们反过来又使对于发展中国家的能源和原料的需求出现了暴涨,推动了商品价格的上涨并且使许多贫困国家获益匪浅。东亚国家以及主要的石油出口国所产生的储蓄提高了全球流通,并且帮助弥补了美国已经达到前所未有水平的国际收支经常项目赤字。

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