El dilema de la deuda

LONDRES/WASHINGTON, DC – Las negociaciones discordantes de Grecia con la UE han vuelto a colocar a la deuda en el centro del debate sobre el crecimiento económico y la estabilidad. Pero Grecia no es el único país que hace esfuerzos para pagar su deuda existente, mucho menos reducir el endeudamiento. Sus negociaciones tirantes con sus acreedores deberían incentivar a otros países a emprender una acción a fin de resolver sus propios excesos de deuda.

Desde que estalló la crisis financiera global en 2008, la deuda del mundo aumentó 57 billones de dólares, superando el crecimiento del PIB. La deuda gubernamental se incrementó 25 billones de dólares de los cuales 19 billones de dólares están en manos de las economías avanzadas -una consecuencia directa de la recesión severa, los programas de estímulo fiscal y los rescates bancarios-. Mientras que los hogares norteamericanos redujeron su deuda de manera considerable (principalmente a través de incumplimientos de pagos de hipotecas), la deuda de los hogares en muchos otros países siguió creciendo rápidamente. En todas las economías principales, el ratio deuda-PIB (incluida la deuda pública y privada) hoy es más alto que en 2007.

Gran parte de esta acumulación de deuda fue generada por los esfuerzos destinados a respaldar el crecimiento económico frente a los vientos deflacionarios en contra luego de la crisis de 2008. Este fue particularmente el caso de China que, junto con otras economías en desarrollo, representa casi la mitad de la deuda asumida desde 2008.

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