hungary serbia barbed wire fence Attila Volgyi/ZumaPress

La madre de todas las crisis

PRINCETON – A primera vista, las grandes crisis internacionales de la actualidad no parecen tener mucho en común. Algunas, como el drama de la deuda griega, son desastres económicos; otras, como la implosión de Siria, se caracterizan por la brutalidad y el caos político; y otras son un poco de cada cosa, notablemente la difícil situación de Ucrania. Pero aunque las autoridades tal vez crean otra cosa, no son hechos desconectados. Por el contrario, son reflejo de una crisis de integración y cooperación internacional más profunda.

En los últimos 60 años, el mundo experimentó paz y prosperidad como nunca antes, por una sencilla razón: la integración voluntaria de los países en una comunidad internacional sostenida por reglas y normas compartidas. Pero ahora esta tendencia cedió paso a respuestas fragmentarias a las crisis (trátese de medidas de austeridad o control localizado de daños), basadas en el error de suponer que problemas como los de Grecia, Siria y Ucrania terminarán resolviéndose solos.

Al pretender hacer frente a las crisis con arreglos provisorios, los líderes mundiales parecen haber olvidado lo independiente que se volvió el mundo. La agitación o el estancamiento en una parte de un sistema complejo pueden generar consecuencias desproporcionadas en otras partes; por ejemplo, una crisis de refugiados o un súbito aumento de la desigualdad.

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