hungary serbia barbed wire fence Attila Volgyi/ZumaPress

危机的危机

普林斯顿——乍看上去,今天的主要国际危机似乎各有不同。有些,比方说希腊债务闹剧,属于经济灾难;其他,比方说叙利亚的国内崩溃,则属于暴力和政治混乱的范畴;还有些,尤其是乌克兰困境,介乎于两者之间。但不管决策者怎么想,上述事件却并非毫无关联。相反,它们从深层次上反映了国际一体化与合作的危机。

过去60年来,世界经历了前所未有的和平与繁荣。原因非常简单:国家主动与共同规则和规范基础上的国际社会相融合。但上述趋势已经被零散的危机应对所取代,无论紧缩政策还是局部损害控制,都是基于希腊、叙利亚和乌克兰问题最终能够自我修正的不合情理的假设。

在依靠临时措施解决危机时,全球领导人似乎已经忘记了世界是怎样相互依存的。复杂系统中某部分的动荡或停滞可以在其他地方以难民危机或不平等加剧等形式产生巨大的影响。

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