China stocks Johannes Eisele | Getty Images

L'action collective au secours de l'économie mondiale

HONG KONG – En mars, le G20, l'Assemblée nationale populaire chinoise et de multiples cercles de réflexion se sont inquiétés des risques que représentent la déflation et l'instabilité financière croissante pour l'économie mondiale. La voie que suivra la Chine pour limiter ces risques sera de première importance. Eviter l'atterrissage brutal de son économie est une condition nécessaire mais insuffisante pour une reprise de l'économie mondiale.

Contre à l'avis de nombreux économistes chinois, les responsables politiques de l'Empire du Milieu n'ont pas adopté la stratégie occidentale habituelle consistant à jouer sur le taux de change à titre d'amortisseur principal des chocs liés à la volatilité des flux de capitaux. Cette stratégie permet d'utiliser la politique monétaire pour fournir les liquidités destinées à des réformes structurelles. Ce choix a satisfait les économistes occidentaux et les marchés financiers mondiaux qui ont poussé un soupir de soulagement quand les dirigeants chinois ont réaffirmé leur engagement en faveur de la stabilité du yuan.

Ils craignaient que si la Chine affaiblit sa devise pour échapper à la déflation, il en résulte un nouvel épisode de dévaluation concurrentielle et peut-être encore plus de déflation. Heureusement les dirigeants chinois ont réalisé que si le monde reste embourbé dans une récession des bilans, la croissance de leur pays serait affectée - l'insuffisance de la demande agrégée continuant à affaiblir le commerce.

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