China stocks Johannes Eisele | Getty Images

振兴全球经济的B方案

发自香港——今年三月,G20集团、全国人大以及多个智库机构召开的会议都表明,全球各方已经逐渐意识到了由通缩压力和金融不稳定性增强所导致的全球经济风险。而中国为减轻这些风险所选择的路径至关重要。避免中国经济硬着陆只是实现全球经济复苏的必要条件,但不是充分条件。

许多中国经济学家都建议采用西方常规的浮动汇率制度,将其作为应对变化莫测的资本流动的减震机制,并为货币政策松绑以便为国内经济结构调整提供流动性,但中国的政策制定者们却并未采纳放开汇率的政策。这让众多西方经济学家和全球金融市场如释重负,大家都在中国领导人再次重申会致力于维持人民币汇率稳定时松了一口气。

许多人原本担心中国会用汇率贬值来摆脱通缩,而其后果必然是全球范围的竞争性货币贬值以及进一步全球通缩。幸运的是,中国领导人意识到如果坐视世界经济深陷资产负债表衰退状态,那么因国际贸易形势持续疲软而导致的全球总需求缺乏就将进一步拖累中国的经济增长。

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