Beijing Skyline Lintao Zhang/Getty Images

反思下一个中国

纽黑文—过去七年,我在耶鲁大学讲授一门叫做《下一个中国》的热门课程。一开始,这门课的焦点集中在现代中国经济的转型需要上,即从一个成功已久的生产者模式过渡到日益依靠家庭消费驱动的模式。大量注意力投向了这一再平衡的风险与机会——及其对中国和更广泛的全球经济的可持发展的相关影像。

中国转型框架的许多重要基础已经就位——特别是服务业的高速增长和城市化的加速——但显然还存在一个重要的扭曲:中国正在从全球化的适应者转变为推动者。事实上,“下一个中国”正在升级其与日益一体化的世界的联系——并在此过程中创造一系列新的风险和机会。

方案几年前就已经完备。这一战略性转变正是中国国家主席习近平的领导力印记的体现——特别是他重点强调的“中国梦”。一开始,这个梦是某种民族主义口号,意指中华民族伟大复兴,中国重新获得从前的全球主导地位,与其世界第二大经济的地位相称。

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