Cómo hacer que cuenten los compromisos sobre el cambio climático

OTTAWA – Este año será el más cálido del que se tenga registro. En el transcurso de la última década, las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero han acelerado, y la concentración en la atmósfera de dióxido de carbono tuvo el  aumento más rápido de casi tres decenios, cuyo nivel fue quince por ciento mayor que en 1990. Como subraya el informe más reciente del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático (IPCC, por sus siglas en inglés), la disociación entre la crisis climática que se agrava cada vez más y el estado de paralización de las negociaciones internacionales nunca había sido tan marcada.

Cabe señalar que mucho depende de los avances que podrá haber en la Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre Cambio Climático que tendrá lugar en París, donde se pueden definir estrategias para reducir las emisiones globales de gases de efecto invernadero de aquí hasta 2050. No obstante, no es probable que en la Cumbre se logre el consenso mundial tan necesario, a menos que los líderes globales amplíen su programa e incluyan no solo la reducción de emisiones, sino también la fijación del precio de carbono.

Un número creciente de expertos –incluidos los del Fondo Monetario Internacional, la OCDE y el Banco Mundial– coinciden en que ningún plan climático puede ser efectivo sino comprende un sistema eficaz de fijación de precio del carbono. El IPCC ha concluido que es necesario tener listo un precio único global de carbono, pues de otra forma será prácticamente imposible impedir que el calentamiento global supere los 2ºC  respecto de los niveles preindustriales –más allá de este umbral los efectos más perjudiciales de cambio climático serían inevitables.

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