Norbert Schiller/Wikimedia Commons

Una hoja de ruta para la economía de India

NUEVA DELHI – El próximo primer ministro indio, Narendra Modi, ha prometido dar un gran impulso a la aletargada economía de su país. Cuando se le preguntó sobre cuáles eran sus planes de reforma, simplemente respondió que “nuestro PIB debe crecer”. Parece un objetivo obvio, pero en los últimos años India lo ha estado perdiendo de vista.

¿Qué va a ser necesario para que la economía india regrese a un crecimiento sostenible? Creemos que los siguientes cinco sencillos hechos son la clave.

En primer lugar, India es un mercado emergente “joven”, lo que significa que es posible alcanzar altos índices de crecimiento económico durante los próximos cinco años sin hacer grandes cambios a sus instituciones. El producto de un país depende de sus entradas, es decir su fuerza de trabajo y bienes de capital, y en la eficiencia con que las usa. Si los bienes de capital (como la infraestructura) son deficientes, la manera más rápida de generar crecimiento es invertir en ellos (siempre que haya disponible financiamiento). Este es el “fruto colgando en la rama baja” que Modi debiera coger de inmediato. El proceso de elevar la eficiencia del uso de los recursos y el nivel de habilidades de la fuerza de trabajo es mucho más dificultoso y gradual.

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