Norbert Schiller/Wikimedia Commons

印度经济路线图

新德里—即将成为印度总理的纳兰德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)承诺要扭转印度经济的停滞局面。最近,在被问及改革计划时,莫迪回答说他的路线图很简单——“我们的GDP应该增长”。看起来,这似乎是一个显而易见的目标,但近几年来印度的注意力一直在远离这一目标。

让印度经济回归可持续增长之路需要什么?我们认为以下五个简单的事实对印度经济至关重要。

首先,印度是一个“年轻”的新兴市场。这意味着可以在未来五年维持高速经济增长而不去对印度的制度实施重大变革。一国的产出取决于它的投入,即劳动力和资本存量,以及使用这些投入的效率。当资本存量——包括基础设施——不足时,投资于此便成为刺激增长的最快捷手段(只要能够获得融资)。这是莫迪所应追求的“低垂的果实”。增加资源使用效率和劳动力水平则是困难得多、缓慢得多的过程。

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