El orden mundial post-ruso

BRUSELAS – La crisis de Crimea desatada por la intervención de Rusia en Ucrania se ve desacertadamente como el comienzo de una segunda Guerra Fría. Sin embargo, si bien las consecuencias del desafío de Vladimir Putin a las leyes y la opinión pública internacionales serán muy distintas de la larga campaña de la Unión Soviética por derrotar al capitalismo, no hay lugar a dudas de que los efectos colaterales geopolíticos tendrán un alcance similar o mayor.

Rusia va en camino de aislarse de la economía global, y al hacerlo abrirá una nueva etapa en las relaciones internacionales. Las sanciones internacionales solo serán la primera consecuencia. Los mercados y los bancos tienden a rehuir la incertidumbre, razón por la cual la economía rusa irá quedando cada vez más al margen del comercio y las inversiones internacionales, condenada a un futuro de lento o nulo crecimiento.

Por supuesto, es Rusia la que se entierra a sí misma. La consecuencia de más amplio alcance será un reordenamiento de la política internacional y de los intentos de los gobiernos de dar respuesta a sus problemas en común, como la gobernanza global y el cambio climático. Puede que incluso lo que ocurre en Ucrania tenga un lado positivo y allane inesperadamente el camino a una realineación significativa de varios países emergentes cuyos papeles serán decisivos en el siglo veintiuno.

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