L’ordre mondial post-russe

BRUXELLES – Il est erroné de considérer l’intervention russe en Ukraine, et la crise de Crimée qui s’en est suivie, comme une sorte de début de seconde guerre froide. Les conséquences de la défiance du président russe Vladimir Poutine à l’égard du droit international et de l’opinion publique mondiale seront très différentes des résultats de la longue campagne de l’Union soviétique destinée à vaincre le capitalisme. Pour autant, les retombées géopolitiques revêtiront très certainement une portée comparable, si ce n’est supérieure.

La Russie est vouée à rejoindre le banc de touche de l’économie mondiale, inaugurant ainsi une nouvelle ère des relations entre les nations. Les sanctions internationales ne constituent que la première de ces conséquences. Les marchés et les banques n’aiment pas l’incertitude, l’économie russe étant ainsi vouée à une exclusion progressive des échanges commerciaux et de l’investissement sur le plan international, et par conséquent destinée à une future croissance lente, voire nulle.

Mais c’est son propre pays que la Russie est en train d’enterrer. Les conséquences plus larges consisteront en un refaçonnage des politiques internationales et des efforts gouvernementaux en faveur de la résolution de problématiques communes, allant de la gouvernance mondiale au changement climatique. Ces conséquences pourraient même s’avérer bénéfiques, les événements survenus en Ukraine ouvrant de manière inattendue la voie à un réalignement significatif des pays à émergence rapide, dont le poids sera décisif au cours du XXIe siècle.

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