后俄罗斯世界秩序

布鲁塞尔—俄罗斯干预乌克兰以及正在发酵的克里米亚危机被错误地称为第二次冷战的开端。但是,尽管俄罗斯总统普京藐视国际法的余波以及公共观点将远远不同于苏联长期的击败资本主义宣言,但其地缘政治涟漪效应必将有过之而无不及。

俄罗斯即将自绝于全球经济,而这样做将带来国际关系新时代。国际制裁只是第一个后果。市场和银行会惩罚不确定性,因此俄罗斯经济将极大地受到全球贸易和投资的排挤,未来很可能陷入慢增长甚至无增长。

当然,这决不是俄罗斯的丧钟。更广泛的后果将是国际政治和各国政府解决从全球治理到气候变化的各种共同问题的方针的剧变。结果甚至可能是积极的,如果乌克兰事件出人意料地打开了将在21世纪扮演决定性角色的快速兴起的国家发生重大重新组合之路的话。

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