Как достичь согласия с Ираном

Вашингтон – После опубликования "Аналитических оценок разведывательных служб" США (National Intelligence Estimate), согласно которым Иран приостановил свою программу разработки ядерного оружия, перспектива военной конфронтации с администрацией Буша потускнела. Но опасность еще не миновала, потому что Иран не отказался от создания ядерного оружия, для которого может быть использован полученный им обогащенный уран.

Все стороны должны найти формулу для решения этого вопроса, пока он опять не перерос в потенциальный конфликт. В последние годы главным объектом усилий Западной дипломатии был президент Ирана Махмуд Ахмадинежад, которого на Западе считают ключевой фигурой для разрешения кризиса. Но это тупиковый подход. 

Давайте вспомним судьбу двух непосредственных предшественников Ахмадинежада. Мухаммад Хатами (1997-2005гг.) старался осуществить значительные политические реформы, тогда как Акбар Хашеми Рафсанджани (1989-1997гг.) старался открыть иранскую экономику для Запада. Оба потерпели неудачу, потому что иранские президенты не управляют страной. Решение ядерной проблемы, как и любой другой проблемы в области внешней политики и международных отношений, находится в руках Верховного Лидера, аятоллы Али Хамени.    

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