Wie man sich mit dem Iran einigen kann

WASHINGTON, DC – Mit der Veröffentlichung des US National Intelligence Estimate, laut welchem der Iran sein Nuklearwaffenprogramm ausgesetzt hat, haben sich die Aussichten auf eine militärische Konfrontation mit der Bush-Regierung verringert. Vorbei ist die Gefahr damit freilich noch nicht, denn der Iran hat keinen Verzicht auf Nuklearwaffen erklärt, für welche sein angereichertes Uran letztlich verwendet werden könnte.

Alle Parteien müssen eine Formel finden, um das Problem zu lösen, bevor erneut der Ausbruch eines Konfliktes droht. Die westliche Diplomatie hat sich in den letzten Jahren auf den iranischen Präsidenten Mahmoud Ahmedinedschad als Schlüssel zur Beilegung der Krise konzentriert. Dieser Ansatz allerdings führt in eine Sackgasse.

Man erinnere sich an das Schicksal der beiden Vorgänger Ahmedinedschads. Muhammad Chatami (1997-2005) versuchte, drastische politische Reformen umzusetzen, während Akbar Hashemi Rafsandjani (1989-97) sich bemühte, die iranische Wirtschaft gegenüber dem Westen zu öffnen. Beide scheiterten – weil es nicht die iranischen Präsidenten sind, die das Land führen. Eine Lösung für das Nukleardilemma (oder irgendein anderes Problem der auswärtigen Angelegenheiten des Iran) liegt in den Händen des Obersten Führers, Ayatollah Ali Chamenei. 

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