伊朗攻略

华盛顿特区—随着美国《国家情报预估》的发布,伊朗与布什政府发生军事冲突的可能性已经降低了。据该报告称伊朗已经中止了其核武器计划。但危险还没有过去,因为伊朗并未放弃制造核武器,而它所获得的浓缩铀最终可以被用于该目的。

相关各方都需要寻找到一个解决方案,在这种危险演化成冲突之前将其化解。近几年西方外交的焦点是将伊朗总统内贾德作为解决危机的关键。但这种策略走入了死胡同。

让我们回想一下内贾德的两位前任。卡塔米(1997-2005)试图实行大刀阔斧的政治改革,而拉夫桑贾尼(1989-97)则企图让伊朗经济向西方开放。但两人都没有成功,因为伊朗这个国家并不是由总统主导的。核困境的解决方案—或者任何其他伊朗外交关系中的问题的解决方案—都由“最高领导人”哈梅内依决定。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/kPJnIRU/zh;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.