Paul Lachine

Lograr (nuevamente) el sí de Alemania

GINEBRA.– La crisis en cámara lenta de la deuda soberana europea puede parecer original, pero no lo es. Hace unas pocas décadas funcionaba el Mecanismo Europeo de Cambio (MEC), que colapsó durante una crisis muy similar a la que afecta hoy a Europa. ¿Será otro esta vez el resultado?

El MEC era un acuerdo que fijaba la mayoría de los tipos de cambio europeos dentro de ciertas bandas de flotación. Pero las políticas monetarias de los miembros del MEC mantuvieron su carácter local. No sorprende que ello haya derivado en desequilibrios fiscales.  Cuando los mercados de capital presentían problemas entre los miembros del MEC, invariablemente vendían en descubierto la moneda más vulnerable y obligaban a las autoridades del país a devaluar. Las autoridades se resistían, culpaban a los especuladores y luego, habitualmente después de varios días frenéticos, se rendían.

Los mercados también ponían a prueba la voluntad de los responsables de las políticas en los países del MEC que por lo demás eran sólidos, en especial cuando ocurrían grandes huelgas o elecciones importantes. En esos casos, incluso un gobierno con los fundamentos económicos adecuados y sus asuntos financieros en orden podía encontrarse en problemas. El presidente del Banco Central Europeo, Jean-Claude Trichet, es perfectamente consciente de esto: a principios de la década de 1990, enfrentó una crisis semejante en calidad de presidente del Banco de Francia.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now