Parvenir à un accord avec l’Iran

Un vieil adage américain dit : « quand tu es au fond du trou, arrête de creuser ! ». Les six gouvernements qui étudient en ce moment les prochaines mesures à prendre pour empêcher l’Iran de mettre au point une bombe nucléaire – les cinq membres permanents du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU et l’Allemagne – devraient tenir compte de ce conseil. Sinon, ils pourraient ne plus avoir aucune prise sur le programme nucléaire iranien, et plus qu’une seule option – inutile – : celle de l’attaque militaire.

Pourtant, les six gouvernements semblent déterminés à poursuivre ce qui était jusqu’ici leur stratégie. La condition pour négocier avec l’Iran est l’arrêt préalable des activités d’enrichissement nucléaire. Ce n’est qu’en échange de cette renonciation permanente de l’Iran qu’ils offriront des récompenses de premier ordre – allant de la levée de l’ensemble des sanctions et des restrictions commerciales à des garanties de sécurité.

Cette stratégie n’a pas été efficace et ne le sera jamais. D’après le Traité de non-prolifération nucléaire, dont l’Iran est toujours signataire, les pays ont le droit d’enrichir de l’uranium à des fins civiles, et l’Iran revendique que c’est tout ce qui l’intéresse. Il est vrai que l’interruption définitive du programme d’enrichissement serait une bonne chose, notamment parce que le gouvernement iranien a caché ses activités durant près de vingt ans aux inspecteurs chargés de veiller au respect du Traité, ce qui laisse entendre que ses motivations sont autres que purement civiles.

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