Para lograr acuerdos sobre la defensa antimisiles

WASHINGTON, D.C. – La reciente visita al Departamento de Estado de los Estados Unidos de Dmitri Rogozin, enviado especial del Presidente de Rusia para la cooperación con la OTAN en materia de defensa antimisiles, pone de relieve uno de los numerosos obstáculos para la cooperación ruso-estadounidense en materia de defensa antimisiles balísticos (DAB). Los ministros de Asuntos Exteriores y de Defensa de Rusia han afirmado la primacía del diálogo con los EE.UU., pero con perspectivas y prioridades diversas. Los diplomáticos de Rusia han adoptado en general, pero no siempre, una postura más dura, mientras que Rogozin ha estado impulsando un programa propio en materia de DAB.

Otra complicación es la incertidumbre sobre quién gobernará en Rusia. Dadas las diferentes opiniones del Presidente Dmitri Medvedev y el ex Presidente y actual Primer Ministro Vladimir Putin, candidatos principales a las elecciones presidenciales del año próximo, muchos burócratas rusos prefieren no ofrecer iniciativas audaces en materia de DAB y otras cuestiones relativas al control de las armas estratégicas hasta saber quién será el próximo presidente. Medvedev parece menos temeroso de la OTAN que su semiparanoide predecesor, pero Putin ha dado muestras en el pasado de una flexibilidad sorprendente en relación con algunas cuestiones estratégicas.

Las evaluaciones conjuntas sobre las amenazas en materia de misiles que el Gobierno de Rusia llevó a cabo recientemente con la OTAN y los EE.UU. revelaron muchas coincidencias entre los expertos técnicos participantes, pero algunas diferencias fundamentales entre los estrategas encargados de la formulación de políticas. Por ejemplo, mientras que los representantes occidentales ven en general en el Irán una amenaza cada vez mayor, muchos rusos siguen insistiendo en que el régimen iraní no ha dejado de ser una amenaza de proliferación que se puede abordar por medios diferentes de la DAB, como, por ejemplo, la diplomacia y las sanciones internacionales limitadas.

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