Jogadas de Alto Risco

CAMBRIDGE – Quem é suficientemente afortunado para viver no mundo desenvolvido preocupa-se com uma miríade de insignificantes – ou por vezes improváveis – perigos: agentes cancerígenos na comida, desastres aéreos, e assim por diante. Mas estamos menos seguros do que pensamos. Estamos em negação relativamente a cenários que poderiam causar tal devastação que até uma única ocorrência seria demasiada.

Muito se tem escrito acerca dos possíveis choques ecológicos provocados pelo impacto das crescentes exigências da população humana sobre a biosfera, e sobre as tensões sociais e políticas resultantes da escassez de recursos ou das alterações climáticas. Ainda mais preocupantes são os riscos negativos das novas e potentes tecnologias ciber, bio e nano: um punhado de indivíduos, por via do erro ou do terror, poderiam deflagrar um colapso social de um modo tão rápido que as respostas governamentais seriam esmagadas.

A era do “Antropoceno”, em que as principais ameaças globais são originadas pelos humanos e não pela natureza, tornaram-se especialmente perigosas com o desenvolvimento massivo das armas termonucleares. Durante a Guerra Fria, falsos alarmes e erros de cálculo por parte de ambas as superpotências eram ocorrências constantes, sendo que algumas representaram um sério risco de desencadear o Armagedão nuclear.

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