Germany Deutches Museum Munich m.salo/Flickr

Une formidable opportunité pour l’Allemagne

BERLIN – L’économie allemande apparaît aujourd’hui imbattable. Il est prévu que la production augmente de plus de 2 % cette année, que les salaires enregistrent une hausse de 3 %, et que l’excédent de balance courante atteigne un sommet de 8,4 % du PIB. Le chômage a été réduit de moitié en dix ans, et se situe actuellement à un niveau record dans toute l’histoire du pays. Les exportateurs allemands demeurent extrêmement innovants et compétitifs. Quant au gouvernement, il enregistre un excédent budgétaire conséquent. Comparée au reste de l’Europe, qui demeure entravée par la crise et le doute, l’Allemagne semble avoir devant elle un avenir favorable et tout tracé. Seulement voilà, les apparences sont parfois trompeuses.

En réalité, les très optimistes données macroéconomiques actuelles n’exposent qu’une partie de la réalité. Depuis la création de l’euro en 1999, la croissance de la productivité de l’Allemagne a tout au plus avoisiné la moyenne parmi les États européens, les salaires réels ayant diminué pour une moitié de la main d’œuvre, et la croissance annuelle du PIB n’ayant atteint qu’un niveau décevant de 1,2 %.

L’une des raisons fondamentales de cette terne performance réside dans le taux d’investissement notoirement dérisoire de l’Allemagne, qui compte parmi les plus faibles de l’OCDE. Il en résulte une détérioration des infrastructures, parmi lesquelles les routes, les ponts, ou encore les écoles. Ceci, en parallèle d’un environnement réglementaire et commercial inadéquat, suscite l’inquiétude du côté des entreprises ; depuis 1999, les plus importantes multinationales allemandes ont doublé leurs effectifs à l’étranger, faisant disparaître un certain nombre de postes dans le pays.

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