Germany Deutches Museum Munich m.salo/Flickr

德国的黄金机会

柏林—德国经济似乎不可阻挡。预计今年产出增长将超过2%,工资增长超过3%,经常项目盈余将达到GDP的8.4%。失业在过去十年中下降了一半,目前位于历史最低水平。德国出口商保持着强大的创新力和竞争力。德国政府也报告了可观的预算盈余。当欧洲其他国家仍陷在自我怀疑的危机中时,德国的未来似乎光明又确定。但外表可能具有欺骗性。

事实上,如今漂亮的宏观经济数据只是故事的一面。1999年欧元诞生以来,德国生产率增长并不比欧洲国家平均水平更强,一半劳动力的真实工资有所下降,年均GDP增长率也只有令人失望的1.2%。

如此拙劣的表现的一个关键原因是德国出了名的低投资率——在经合组织国家中垫底。结果是道路、桥梁和学校等基础设施的恶化。这,以及监管和营商环境的不足,引起了公司的担忧;1999年以来,德国规模最大的跨国公司海外员工数量增长了一倍,而国内岗位数量有所下降。

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