Berlin NYE 2017 Anadolu Agency

Duitsland in het Trump-tijdperk

BERLIJN – Donald Trump is inmiddels de 45e president van de Verenigde Staten, en in zijn inaugurele rede maakte hij het verzamelde Amerikaanse establishment duidelijk dat zijn regering niet de intentie heeft om de gewone gang van zaken te volgen. Zijn motto, ‘Amerika eerst’, wijst op de verwerping en mogelijke destructie van de door de VS geleide wereldorde die Democratische en Republikeinse presidenten, te beginnen met Franklin D. Roosevelt, hebben opgebouwd en meer dan zeventig jaar in stand gehouden – zij het met wisselend succes.

Wanneer Amerika afziet van zijn rol als leidende economische en militaire macht en zich richting nationalisme en isolationisme beweegt zal het de aanzet geven tot een internationale herschikking, terwijl het land zelf ook zal veranderen. In plaats van een hegemoniale macht zal de VS een grootmacht onder grootmachten worden.

Sinds het einde van de Tweede Wereldoorlog is de VS de motor van de mondiale vrijhandel geweest, dus een verschuiving naar protectionisme, of een poging om de mondialisering ofwel proberen terug te draaien of deze in te zetten voor eng gedefinieerde nationale belangen zou wereldwijd immense economische en politieke consequenties hebben. De volle implicaties van zo een verschuiving zijn grotendeels onvoorspelbaar; maar we weten allemaal – of zouden allemaal moeten weten – wat er de laatste keer gebeurde toen de leidende wereldmachten zich, in de jaren ’30, naar binnen keerden.

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