Graffiti in Berlin, Germany

El fin de la hegemonía alemana

BRUSELAS – Realmente, sin que nadie se dé cuenta, el equilibrio interno del poder en Europa se ha ido desplazando. La posición dominante de Alemania, que desde la crisis financiera de 2008 parecía ser absoluta, se debilita gradualmente – lo que conlleva implicaciones de largo alcance para la Unión Europea.

Por supuesto, desde una perspectiva de poder blando, el simple hecho de que las personas crean que Alemania es fuerte refuerza la situación del país y su posición estratégica. Pero no pasará mucho tiempo hasta que las personas comiencen a darse cuenta que el principal impulsor de dicha percepción – que señala que la economía alemana continuó creciendo, mientras que la mayoría de las otras economías de la eurozona experimentaron una recesión prolongada – es una excepción que pronto desaparecerá.

Durante 12 de los últimos 20 años, la tasa de crecimiento de Alemania ha sido inferior a la media de los otros tres países grandes de la eurozona (Francia, Italia y España). Si bien el crecimiento alemán ascendió rápidamente durante el período posterior a la crisis, tal como muestra el gráfico, el Fondo Monetario Internacional predice que va a caer por debajo de la media de los tres países mencionados – y muy por debajo de la media de la eurozona, que incluye a países de Europa central y oriental que son más pequeños y tienen un alto crecimiento – en los próximos cinco años.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now