Graffiti in Berlin, Germany

El fin de la hegemonía alemana

BRUSELAS – Realmente, sin que nadie se dé cuenta, el equilibrio interno del poder en Europa se ha ido desplazando. La posición dominante de Alemania, que desde la crisis financiera de 2008 parecía ser absoluta, se debilita gradualmente – lo que conlleva implicaciones de largo alcance para la Unión Europea.

Por supuesto, desde una perspectiva de poder blando, el simple hecho de que las personas crean que Alemania es fuerte refuerza la situación del país y su posición estratégica. Pero no pasará mucho tiempo hasta que las personas comiencen a darse cuenta que el principal impulsor de dicha percepción – que señala que la economía alemana continuó creciendo, mientras que la mayoría de las otras economías de la eurozona experimentaron una recesión prolongada – es una excepción que pronto desaparecerá.

Durante 12 de los últimos 20 años, la tasa de crecimiento de Alemania ha sido inferior a la media de los otros tres países grandes de la eurozona (Francia, Italia y España). Si bien el crecimiento alemán ascendió rápidamente durante el período posterior a la crisis, tal como muestra el gráfico, el Fondo Monetario Internacional predice que va a caer por debajo de la media de los tres países mencionados – y muy por debajo de la media de la eurozona, que incluye a países de Europa central y oriental que son más pequeños y tienen un alto crecimiento – en los próximos cinco años.

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