Graffiti in Berlin, Germany

德国霸权的终结

布鲁塞尔—不知不觉间,欧洲内部实力平衡一直在发生变化。2008年金融危机以来德国看似绝对的主导地位正在逐渐削弱——这对欧盟有着深远的影响。

当然,从软实力角度讲,仅凭人们相信德国很强这一事实便足以支持德国的地位和战略位置。但用不了多久,人们就将开始注意到,德国强盛的感觉的主要动力——德国经济在其他大部分欧元区经济体长时间衰退时仍能持续增长——是一个例外,并且很快就会消失。

在过去20年中,有12年德国增长率慢于其他三个欧元区大国(法国、意大利和西班牙)平均水平。尽管德国增长率在危机后时期中跃居首位(如图所示),但国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计,五年内德国增长率将降到三国平均水平以下——并大大低于包括中欧和东欧规模较小的高增长国家在内的欧元区平均水平。

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