ドイツ選挙における5つの未知数

9月18日にドイツで行われる選挙には、少なくとも5つの未知数が含まれている。もしこの選挙に方程式があるとすれば、それを解くことは不可能だろう。幸い、政治は数学ではない-だが、それはつまり明快な解決法が存在しないということを意味する。確かに、政治が不透明なこの時代においても、特にドイツの例は我々を当惑させるものだ。

最初の不明点は、そもそもなぜ選挙が行われようとしているのかということだ。ゲルハルト・シュレーダー首相の任期は当時15ヶ月を残していたし、自分の党派は確かに弱小ではあったが、問題なく結集できているように見えていた。

確かに、連邦大統領が連邦議会を解散した際に掲げた大きな議題は、それぞれ意義がある。財政の現状は、ドイツ基準からすれば容認できないもので、公債は現レベルで欧州連合の安定協定に違反しており、次世代への負担になっている。人口統計学上の発展ひとつにしても社会政策の大幅な改革を必要としている。そのうえ、連邦制度は急速あるいは明確な判断が下されることを許さない。

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