L’Allemagne et sa politique budgétaire: est-ce bien raisonnable?

PRINCETON – Les déficits du secteur public ont atteint, partout dans le monde, des seuils critiques. Les plans de sauvetage de banques et d’entreprises touchées financièrement et économiquement, coûtent cher aux gouvernements. Les programmes keynésiens de stimuli budgétaires font toujours l’unanimité, mais aujourd’hui, les responsables cherchent désespérément à produire un “plan B.” Ils savent qu’ils ne peuvent pas se permettre d’être indéfiniment en déficit, mais ne veulent pas se prononcer sur la date à laquelle il leur faudra engager le douloureux processus de réduction.

L’Allemagne se singularise, non qu’elle échappe en ce moment aux dépenses, mais par sa façon d’envisager l’avenir. Le gouvernement allemand a fait le choix de la rigueur à l’égard des déficits et s’impose une stratégie ferme pour en sortir. La chancelière Angela Merkel a fustigé la Réserve américaine et la Banque d’Angleterre pour leur politique quantitative, autorisant en pratique la monétisation de toutes sortes de dettes publiques et privées par la Banque centrale. Le gouvernement allemand a en outre fait passer une loi constitutionnelle, le contraignant à limiter le déficit public à 0,35% du PIB d’ici 2016, et à l’éliminer d’ici 2020.

Les Allemands applaudissent cette critique du trop grand relâchement des banques centrales, ainsi que cet effort pour réduire la dette publique, tandis que les économistes du monde entier (y compris en Allemagne) les trouvent absurdes.

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