Angela Merkel departs after preliminary coalition talks collapsed Sean Gallup/Getty Images

德国的诸神的黄昏

慕尼黑—德国正在经过一个政治分水岭。不仅仅自由民主党(FDP)退出执政联盟谈判让人们质疑总理、基督教民主联盟(CDU)的默克尔是否能够保持权力。FDP退出与CDU、CDU的巴伐利亚姊妹党基督教社会联盟(CSU)和绿党的谈判标志着其不再愿意结成稳定的政府,而这又是阿登纳战后执政末期以来德国政治的最大特征。

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当然,没有了FDP的参与,默克尔可以寻求与社会民主党(SPD)结成联合政府。但铩羽而归的SPD说它已决定要做反对党,以期从大选的惨败中恢复。其他可能的执政联盟都不用考虑,因为极左翼和极右翼的德国另类选择党(AfD)都被视为不可接受的合作伙伴。

但由默克尔领导的少数派政府仍是可能的。德国总统施坦因迈尔已经表示反对重新进行大选,因此,如果默克尔本人不辞职,这一情景可能性就很大。而即使进行新大选,结果也不会有多少不同,除非SPD领导人马丁·舒尔茨(Martin Schulz)下台。

少数派政府可以由CDU和CSU组成,而不与其他党派进行正式合作。如果少数派执政联盟要将绿党也包括在内,将迫使CSU在移民问题和气候政策上作出妥协,但这不是必须的,因为SPD、左翼党(Die Linke) 和绿党都没有阻止立法的实力。默克尔本人也将试图避免与FDP结成少数派执政联盟,免得染上FDP依赖症。至于FDP,它则有可能出于同样的原因参与到少数派联合政府中。这样,它就能够利用默克尔的红绿亲和力。

不论如何组建,少数派政府都未必是一件坏事。政府正在寻求合作伙伴实施临时性立法,在这样的情况下,德国联邦议院终于将再次成为真正的公共辩论场。长期以来,执政联盟的合作伙伴之间都是闭门讨论政府决定,联邦议院要么充当橡皮图章,要么否决结果。

议会强势化的最大受益者是小党派。因为若非如此,它们几乎没有机会能够施加影响。毕竟,作为法国国民阵线(National Front)的德国版的AfD从什么也不是,在9月的大选中一举成为德国第三大党,它将从公开辩论中获益。目前,媒体基本上都在重点抨击AfD。但如果联邦议院变得更加主动的话,AfD的观点和言辞肯定能够得到更好的展现。

与此同时,少数派联邦政府的外交政策必然会有所削弱,默克尔将难以在欧洲政坛上扮演积极角色。但这也意味着德国的欧洲伙伴国们需要竭力推动德国政府问题上的妥协。这一动态对于法国尤其重要,因为其总统马克龙的目标——通过赋予欧元区更多国家属性来巩固它,以及他的愿望——推出两速的欧洲,其中包括一个欧元区和一个由北欧和东欧欧盟国家组成的庞大的非欧元外围。

德国少数派政府将不得不经历漫长的争论,在它能够支持马克龙的方案——其他方案也一样——之前,必须先与联邦议院的各派别就每一项重大决策进行讨论。国内的有效反对意味着德国政府不再能够在夜深人静时默许各种援助德国的欧盟伙伴的行动。

2010年5月曾经发生过这样的事情,默克尔政府在法国三巨头——欧洲央行行长特里谢(Jean-Claude Trichet)、IMF总裁斯特劳斯-卡恩(Dominique Strauss-Kahn)和法国总统萨科齐——的压力下,不得不违反马斯特里赫特条约,为希腊的外国债权人(主要是法国银行)成立了一个救助基金。2012年德国也被迫做出过妥协,默克尔同意了银行联盟和欧洲央行的“直接货币交易”计划,该计划在事实上将欧洲政府债券变成了欧元债券。

类似地,默克尔的膝跳反射式决定——如日本福岛事故不出几个月就宣布德国逐步退出核电,以及允许难民从安全的第三国进入德国等——也将无法推行。这是值得欢迎的变化,因为政客总是受到自身思维的推动,做出长期来看有严重消极后果的决定。

比如,在核能被排除的情况下,如今德国想要兑现其遏制气候变化的承诺,只能通过伤害——并有可能失去——部分工业基础来实现。而在短短两年内允许150万移民入境也给德国的福利国家制度带来了沉重负担,无心插柳地鼓动了英国退欧派,也激起了东欧国家的全体反对。

确定德国和欧洲目前所面临的政治不确定性还为时过早。但如果德国联邦议院获得了问责默克尔的能力的话,这也许是德国最好的另类选择了。

http://prosyn.org/NpIQ53m/zh;

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