德国不是中国

鹿特丹——

全球贸易和资本流失衡是导致2008年金融危机以及随之而来的衰退的原因之一,这一点已是公论。但是,并非所有的失衡都是一样的,因此,弄清楚各国外部账户对全球经济稳定和繁荣的影响非常重要。

这次危机的传统解释早已众所周知:在工资增长有限的情况下,21世纪初高企的房价刺激了美国的私人消费。再加上不断扩大的预算赤字,原已臃肿不堪的美国经常账户赤字如同吹气球一般迅速膨胀。与此相对应的是,中国和得益于油价上涨的产油国(如阿联酋)积累起巨大的外部盈余。

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