Elderly Germans Sean Gallup/Getty Images

L’âge d’argent à venir en Allemagne

MUNICH – Les niveaux record de migration vers l'Allemagne au cours des deux dernières années ont mis en cause les projections démographiques du pays. Mais l’évolution rapide de l'Allemagne vers un profil démographique plus favorable n'est pas une raison pour reporter les décisions politiques douloureuses concernant la retraite et les pensions.

Au début de ce siècle, des prévisions qui étaient considérées comme fiables prédisaient que l'Allemagne aurait perdu plus de dix millions d'habitants d'ici à 2050, en raison du déclin de l'immigration et de la faiblesse du taux moyen de natalité. Aujourd'hui, les projections démographiques sont beaucoup plus favorables. Selon les derniers calculs du gouvernement, la population allemande pourrait rester supérieure à 80 millions jusqu'en 2060, et la réduction de l'offre de travail pourrait ne pas être aussi radicale que précédemment redouté.

Les prévisions démographiques ont dû être corrigées de manière significative, parce que le nombre d'immigrants en Allemagne a fluctué énormément et de manière imprévisible, au contraire de l'émigration hors d'Allemagne, qui, elle, est restée relativement stable.

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