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“ 德国顶峰”的终结以及法国的回归

发自伦敦—乍眼看去,5月欧洲议会选举的结果以及随后的欧盟新领导团队提名都在预示着欧盟的延续而非中断。民族主义政党未能在选举中取得任何重大进展,而后各大西欧维护现状派势力亲手挑选了多位联邦主义者就任欧盟最高职位。尤其是选择厄休拉·冯德莱恩(Ursula von der Leyen)担任欧盟委员会的下一任主席—也使她成为半个世纪以来第一个担任该职位的德国人—似乎证实德国将继续在欧洲占据主导地位。

然而平静的水面下往往是暗流涌动。历史表明霸权国家夺取正式领导权之时经常也是其势力逐渐流失(而非增强)之时。如今有几项因素都威胁到了德国作为欧盟领头羊的地位——而法国将成为主要受益者。

到目前为止,德国的主导地位依赖于两大主要支柱:看似永久性的美国国防保障,以及领先全球的制造企业和大规模净债权人地位。但随着这些基石开始崩溃,“德国顶峰”的时代可能正在消逝。

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