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Economics

德国极右翼势力可以抵制的崛起

Nov 22, 2022 Dalia Marin

慕尼黑—瑞典和意大利最近进行的选举表明右翼民粹主义势力在整个欧洲仍在崛起。但在德国却并非如此，德国的右翼另类选择党（AfD）迄今为止所取得的成功是十分有限的。

德国抵制民粹主义浪潮的一个可能解释是，不同于在欧洲其他国家取得进展的极右翼政党，全球化在另类选择党的崛起过程中所发挥的作用有限。该党在德国全球化达到高峰后很长时间才成为一股选举力量，而且成功主要局限于前东德各州。

在2013年另类选择党这股反欧元及反希腊纾困力量兴起之前，德国并没有成功的右翼民粹主义运动。鉴于自2008年金融危机以来贸易占国内生产总值的比例一直停滞不前，该党很快将重心转向了仇外和反移民政策。

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vic lai Nov 24, 2022

Germany's latest defeat by Japan in the first round of FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 shows to the world that, there must have been something wrong with this country in recent years, or that the country's good old days may mostly have gone for good.
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For one thing, Germany seems to have just joined Japan as one the world's major countries which are both an economic giant and a geopolitical dwarf at the same time.
As always a political dwarf, especially relative to the world's still-dominant geopolitical Leviathan, a country like Germany can never truly keep maintaining her people's widely admired high-welfare, short-working-hour, and long-holiday average living standard persistently into the far future.
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Without genuine military and diplomatic independence of her own,
(i) which always seems trivial or unimportant especially in peaceful times,
(ii) to which not much attention has therefore been paid by the political rulers, and
(iii) whose vital importance can never be measured by money alone,
a country like today's Germany will significantly be hurt when the Jugement Day eventually arrives.
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- vic lai Nov 24, 2022
  
  The "comfortable" combination of economic giant and political dwarf, which may voluntarily be chosen by such a country herself, and which obviously is entirely dependent on the persistent mercy of the dominant hegemon, usually doesn't persist forever, at least not without the benefiting country's having to start paying exorbitant protection fees back to the dominant hegemon one day in the coming years.
  Afterall, the no-free-lunch postulate can't be so easily violated.
  The very high LNG prices now being paid by today's Germany back to the US is one natural result of such a good old global geopolitical game constantly being played under the sun.
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  Even worse, even though the benefiting country honestly keeps paying protection fees to her Godfather, there's no guarantee that she will not also become another of the world's economic dwarf over time, besides her persistent role of being a political dwarf.
  The German footballers can just ask their Japanese counterparts at the end of their football match in Qatar.
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  - vic lai Nov 25, 2022
    
    If all the EU national countries in Europe combined is imagined as a single big country, then Germany is like the most economically competitive province in this imagined big country, much resembling today's Canton province in the southernmost part of China.
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    Inside a genuinely unified country like China, the highly competitive and profitable Canton province has to transfer every year 63% of its fiscal revenue to China's central government (which is lower than Shanghai's even higher 75%).
    But, you know what, every year Germany just transfers to the nearby "beggar-like" EU countries only a minimal 30 billion Euro, which is less than 0.7% of Germany's GDP and which is also around 2% of Germany's fiscal revenue.
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    Even without
    (a) the Continent's current energy, inflation, and other related crises caused by the ongoing Ukraine War, and
    (b) the resulting blood-sucking of the Euro area by the US (due to the EU's importation of very expensive LNG, and buying of much more weapons and ammunitions, from today's US),
    if Shylock-the-Jew-like Germany, which has always refused to set up a formal Fiscal Union in the EU area which is having a formal fiscal transfer mechanism as effective and fair as that in today's China, can still successfully and persistently act as the de facto leader of all the other EU countries far into the future without the other EU countries' stronger and stronger revolts and hence the EU's eventual unstoppable disintegration, then it's really too good to be true for Germany.
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    - vic lai Nov 25, 2022
      
      In the 2 decades following the formal launch of the Euro on 1 January 1999, Germany has been using
      (i) her own particularly high domestic productivity,
      (ii) her much undervalued 1:1 currency exchange rate between herself and the rest of the EU countries,
      (iii) the resulting unified EU market, with no tariff impositions nor capital-flow and labor-migrating restrictions whatsoever, that's also as big as or even bigger than the whole domestic market of the US,
      to help herself become the world's biggest net-exporting country in recent years, even surpassing China which has always been the World's Factory.
      Hence Japan-like lost decades was never repeated in Germany in the past 2 decades.
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      Germany's current much undervalued exchange rate is obtained and maintained at the pitiful sacrifice of many other less competitive southern and eastern countries in the EU, requiring those countries to have to keep practising painful and sustained internal devaluations to prevent their own external competitiveness from deteriorating further in the years ahead relative to both Germany and the rest of the non-EU world.
      ---
      If for some reasons the EU disintegrates one day in the future, and Germany is forced to use back her own Deutsche Mark, then given her country's persistently high productivity and external competitiveness, her new currency's exchange rate will substantially rise to the sky very quickly in the coming years, like what the Japanese yen did in the past.
      Without an extremely big and unified EU market as her most important economic hinterland, Germany in the coming years may eventually become today's "decades-lost" Japan.
      This "fatal" economic possibility will be avoided by today's Germany at all costs, and so Germany will do whatever it takes to maintain persistently the overall integrity of the EU, and to preserve the continued use of the Euro in the Euro area by all the EU participating countries in the future.
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      But, this way, how can the national economies of the EU countries be genuinely rebalanced without the formal setting up of a common Fiscal Union in the EU which is rightfully equipped with the normal and inescapable job of fiscal transfer payments among the necessary EU countries ?
      Afterall, the ECB's constant buying of the PIIGS's newly-issued national treasuries (used to help finance their national government's requisite fiscal deficit-spending), through the use of new-money-printing QEs, not only will create and sustain the good old moral hazard problems in those countries, but also will contradict the rate-hiking contractionary monetary policy now being pursued by the ECB to fight the runaway inflation in the EU area.
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Lawrence Michael Nov 22, 2022

After the media's creations of the Left, Right, and Centre they walloped their own concepts left, right & centre. But with that caveat, the idea of populism by itself expresses the decline of politics & as well as capacity for it. In other words, a much degraded populace. Already a cause for concern and one does not include the poor United States in the ambit of developed countries. Opinions are fine. Should be encouraged from across the spectrum for reviving and replenishing democracy. But where's the time for it?
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德国极右翼势力可以抵制的崛起

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