Germany economy Joern Pollex/Getty Images

盈余的艺术

柏林—德国持续的高经常项目盈余问题也许不在本周汉堡G20峰会的正式日程上,但它必然会在参会的领导人中间制造紧张态势。毕竟,这一盈余向来是许多德国贸易伙伴不满的对象,去年它高达名义GDP的8.3%,其中对美国盈余占了最大比重。

平心而论,德国经济也可以从减少其经常项目盈余的政策变化中获益。但这样的调整必须有合理的指引才能起作用——并且要由接受国际贸易的共赢特性、允许经济逐渐实现调整、杜绝经济类似于大公司的幻觉的领导人来推行。

国际贸易不是零和博弈。经常项目赤字未必总意味着“坏事”,盈余也未必一定值得庆祝。相反,它们都是各种私人交易的结果,参与这些交易的各方都预期自己能够获得好处。

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