Politics

مستقبل أوروبا بعد انتخابات ألمانيا

Oct 2, 2017 Guy Verhofstadt

بروكسل - ليس هناك شك في أن نتائج الانتخابات الفدرالية الأخيرة في ألمانيا مهمة للغاية. كما هو ملحوظ، فقدت الأحزاب التي هيمنت على السياسة الألمانية منذ سنوات - الحزب الديمقراطي الاشتراكي والاتحاد الديمقراطي المسيحي (CDU)، بالإضافة إلى حزبها الشقيق البافاري، الاتحاد الاجتماعي المسيحي - الدعم في صناديق الاقتراع.

وكانت حملات الانتخابات الداخلية للحزب الديمقراطي الاشتراكي والاتحاد الديمقراطي المسيحي والاتحاد الاجتماعي المسيحي تبدو مثيرة للقلق بشكل كبير. وشملت المواضيع التي نوقشت على نطاق واسع حظر الديزل المقترح، والسياسات الضريبية، ورسوم الإيجار، وقضايا الأمن الداخلي. نعم، هذه هي الأمور ذات الصلة بالنسبة للناخبين الألمان. ولكن عندما يتعلق الأمر بالتحديات الأكثر إلحاحا التي تواجه الاتحاد الأوروبي ومنطقة اليورو، كانت الأحزاب الرئيسية في ألمانيا صامتة إلى حد كبير.

وهذه التحديات متعددة. تتفاوض المملكة المتحدة بشأن خروجها من الاتحاد الأوروبي، وهناك شكوك عميقة حول ما ستبدو عليه العلاقة بين المملكة المتحدة والاتحاد الأوروبي في المستقبل. كما يحتاج الاتحاد الأوروبي بشدة إلى منع المزيد من التدهور في الديمقراطية وسيادة القانون في بولندا والمجر. ولا يزال يتعين عليه أن إيجاد حل طويل الأجل لأزمة الهجرة واللاجئين. وعليه أن يواجه التحديات الأمنية الناجمة عن الإرهاب، وروسيا الحاكمة، وأمريكا التائهة في ظل الرئيس دونالد ترامب. وفي الوقت نفسه، في حين تظهر علامات النمو في منطقة اليورو، لا يزال يتعين استعادة انتعاشها في نهاية المطاف.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 18 Comments on this article

youcef benchouk Oct 23, 2017

Side expectations to exceed the need for what is being watched and the Europeans know when they think in the past episode and they are closer to the brothers peace
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barrymchugh5 Oct 20, 2017

Perhaps economics metrics are trending to something very simple as below. I think your readers may find it thought provoking, and maybe generate discussion, if you could write on this:

1. If lowering interest rates is unlikely to be of any benefit and perhaps shock pension funds via the discount rate on their future obligations ....
2. Then, and as appears to be happening, keep stocks moving ahead to hedge liquidity by driving real wages lower (I'm not a fan of this as it hurts our youth).
3. And that wage led downward pressure on prices helps to flatline the country's current account ( I'm Aussie but am referring to US).
4. And the higher real rates for multinatnational corporates (or financiers) domiciled in the Gross National Income Champions of the US, JAP, China & India?!, enables a wealth transfer up from the multinational's subsidiaries offshore back to the US, JAP, China & India. That effect would be less pronounced if not for the downwards real wage price pressure (ne immigration) as otherwise it would be liquidity measures keeping stocks moving, ie lower interest rates for multinationals.
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Andrew Cole Oct 9, 2017

The problem with the Eurozone is German control over its design and evolution. At present it is run as a negative sum game for the benefit of Germany and its immediate satellites whilst the rest spiral down with internal deflation because transfer payments are inadequate, leaving only mass migration (aka "freedom" of movement) as a safety valve for unemployment. Germany also gains from bond prices due so safe haven status exaggerated by the economic inequality. Brexit also happened in part because the limited transfer payments needed for a common currency are partly dumped on the UK and Scandinavia. Schadenfreude and a disparaging view of those who have allowed themselves to get into debt leads to cultural reinforcement, making Germany and German culture an absolute roadblock to Eurozone success without damaging itself in the process. Only an alliance against Germany, Holland etc could possibly change this or at least force compromise, but divide and rule is the name of the game.
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Henk Crop Oct 4, 2017

Mr. Verhofstadt says that he wants to make the EU more democratic.
However he is not acting like that.
Not only in Germany but all over the EU people want: less immigration, less Islam and less EU.
Verhofstad neglects these wishes and labels those people as; populists, illiberall elements and wants to sidetrack them.
He does so while he is a member of the EU Parliament.
A parliament which is supposed to represent the EU citizen and supervise the EU Commission.
Instead he acts as a supervisor of the German parliament and Government.
What kind of democracy are we receiving ?

A few weeks ago mr. Junckers outlined in his State of the Union a plan to go full speed ahead with building the European Supertstate with himself/successor as the superior EU leader.
A poll held in the Netherlands ( Telegraaf, 15 september ) showed a rejection of 96 % by the respondents.
The EU parliament, and mr. Verhofstad, kept silent.
The EU project is basicly a project whereby power is transferred on a large scale from the EU citizen, and his elected politician, to Brussels.
So I hope that Germany and the leaders of the other member states are going to have a close look at how democracy is being guaranteed in both Brussel and Frankfort.
Not only in theory but also in reality.
The EU Commission has an army of 25000 employees producing rulings that effect life for all of us.
Also, too many failures have been made over the past 15 years, which require evaluation.
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jagjeet sinha Oct 3, 2017

THE CHANCELLOR IS GERMAN FIRST
The German Chancellor is voted into office by the German electorate.
For Merkel and Berlin, Brussels appears as an afterthought.
The author has clearly noticed that Europe was not an Issue.
Should Brussels desire Transfer Union - the German electorate will block.
There is near unanimity on the One Issue - that Europe wants from Germany.

The Euro has been the talisman that France gifted Germany.
The EuroMark defacto is The Deutsche Mark standard - for Europe.
Charles Degaulle demolished The Dollar Standard in 1971.
Only for Jacques Chirac to replace The Dollar with The EuroMark 1999.

Unless Macron can replicate Alexander Hamilton - with Merkel rubber stamp.
Security of Europe is France's Genius - perhaps what Trump wants from Europe.
But it is not easy - Poland trusts Trump to stop Putin, not Brussels or Macron.
And Merkel trusts Nordstream 2.0 - as does Gerhard Schroeder.
Both are fluent in Russian.

Nothing is impossible - and Macron @ 39 is hope, that may materialize.
But The Chancellor is German foremost - as Macron is French.
Unless they are elected by Europe - this will not change.
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j. von Hettlingen Oct 3, 2017

Guy Verhofstadt is not surprised about the electoral loss of mainstream parties in Germany - the Social Democrats (SPD), the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). He says Angela Merkel and her rival candidate, Martin Schulz merely made promises for superficial change and lacked aspiration and goals. Voters turned their backs on them since they had little to offer, when it came to the most pressing questions about Germany’s future, despite economic prosperity.
The author accuses the CDU/CSU and SPD of being "astonishingly parochial" in conducting "inward-looking" campaigns that revolved around "diesel ban, tax policies, rental fees, and internal security issues." No doubt they were "relevant matters for German voters," but he was disappointed that little was said about "the most pressing challenges confronting the European Union and the eurozone" - the future of the euro, the EU-UK relationship after Brexit; the threat Hungary and Poland pose to the EU laws; the refugee crisis; populism, terrorism etc. He expected more leadership from Merkel in the age of a "ruderless" America under Trump and a "revanchist" Russia under Putin.
Merkel is often accused of refusing to lead. Many inside and outside Germany would like her to be the leader of the free world. Critics say she offered no grand visions and bold concepts for the future, pushing aside many issues that are related to current crises. She and Schulz feared that by standing up for Europe, they would simply feed the anti-EU sentiments of populists and nationalists. Unfortunately they enabled the far-right eurosceptic party, the AfD to bank on nationalism and promise decisive actions to "take back our country and our people."
The author points out that Germany has been the driving force for European unity in the post-World War Two era. It had invested much in easing tensions with Eastern Europe and made the German reunification possible. But he once said that Germany had become "lazy" since the fall of the Berlin Wall. This complacency has come back to haunt Angela Merkel in this year's election.
Her Task should be to keep the European project afloat by forming a viable coalition government that could tackle the challenges within and outside Germany. Many in Europe place hope on Merkel, who together with French President Emmanuel Macron, will take on a leadership role and act with conviction to salvage the EU and renew the European Project. The EU has guaranteed the Continent freedom and prosperity for 70 years. But with the rise of populism on the left and on the right, it can no longer rest on its laurels.
Observers fear that there would be much squabbling within Merkel's ruling party, the CDU and its sister party, the CSU in Bavaria, which calls for a rightward shift after last week's election losses. The "Jamaica" coalition government will make up of the pro-business Free Democrats, the FDP and the pro-environment party, the Greens. The FDP is sceptical of Emmanuel Macron's eurozone project. While the Greens won't have problems with Macron, they are at loggerheads with the FDP. German voters support the "Jamaica" coalition and want to see it work. It remains to be seen whether the three parties could put their partisan interests aside for the good of Germany and the EU.
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Bernhard Kopp Oct 3, 2017

If there were a rule of law on the EU-level, then any Euro-19 government would need to resign and call new elections if and when this particular country violates the Maastricht criteria. Any government that cannot govern within the constraints of the law must step down. Neither Mr. Verhofstadt, nor anybody else in EU-circles wants to introduce strict rules of law for governments. They want 'flexible, better governance', with, as Jean Claude Juncker explained it, wiggle room for exceptions,'because it is France', or Italy or Spain or whoever. Both Mr. Verhofstadt and Mr. Juncker most probably believe that they are 'democratically elected and legitimate'. Both are not.
- Henk Crop Oct 4, 2017
  
  Bernard. Well put.
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Christoph Koppenwallner Oct 3, 2017

The german vote was driven by protest: poverty after retirement, too less subsidized rents, declining health care, defect schools, economic pressure on the middle class since decades, no law enforcement, neglect of citizens' opinion ect. Not a theme were Europe or immigration - the latter an absolutely side show.
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Steve Hurst Oct 2, 2017

'But when it came to the most pressing challenges confronting the European Union and the eurozone, Germany’s mainstream parties were largely silent.' Perhaps Guy this is an indication that Germany is primarily interested in Germany. Shock, horror.
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Alun Huws Oct 2, 2017

Rather a shame that you talk about increasing democracy in Europe and tackling the nationalist elements on the day after the chaos in Spain. We note that the looked on silently while Spain attacked its own population for daring to try and vote. Is this the unity we want in Europe, unity of a single opinion and voting only allowed when the result will be what the EU wishes to happen ? This attitude is what drives people's scepticism on the EU and drives them into teh arms of nationalists and separatists.
- Steve Hurst Oct 2, 2017
  
  We are the Borg. You will be assimilated. Resistance is futile.
  Negotiation is irrelevant. You will be assimilated.
  Freedom is irrelevant. Self-determination is irrelevant.
  You must comply
  We only wish to raise quality of life
  Star Trek
  - Prashant Kotak Oct 2, 2017
    
    Yup. (with apologies to The Firm)
    
    Star Trekkin' across the universe,
    Boldly going forward 'cause we can't find reverse.
    
    Lt. Uhura, report:
    There's Klingons on the starboard bow, starboard bow, starboard bow;
    
    Analysis, Mr. Spock:
    It's life, Jim, but not as we know it, not as we know it, not as we know it;
    
    Medical update, Dr. McCoy:
    It's worse than that, he's dead, Jim, dead, Jim, dead, Jim;
    
    Starship Captain, James T. Kirk:
    Ah! We come in peace, shoot to kill, shoot to kill, shoot to kill;
    
    Engine Room Mr Scott:
    Och, if I give it any more she'll blow, Cap'n!
    
    Ah, the Eighties, happy memories...
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- Andrew Wright Oct 2, 2017
  
  Unfortunately, you appear to be correct.
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