fischer179_Michael Kappelerpicture alliance via Getty Images_bundestag merkel

Le retour de la politique allemande

Mar 26, 2021 Joschka Fischer

BERLIN – Après 16 ans passés au poste de Chancelière allemande, le règne d'Angela Merkel touche à sa fin. Qu'on l'aime ou qu'on la déteste, elle laisse son empreinte sur tout une période de notre histoire. Mais les époques politiques se terminent rarement dans le calme, et les adieux de « Mutti » à la politique allemande ne font pas exception à la règle.

La campagne politique allemande commence enfin à s'animer. Les deux premières élections d'État dans une super année d'élections portent à croire que les élections fédérales du 26 septembre risquent de déboucher sur une nouvelle coalition gouvernementale, sans l'Union chrétienne-démocrate de Merkel, ni son parti frère bavarois, l'Union chrétienne-sociale.

Dans les États de Bade-Wurtemberg et de Rhénanie-Palatinat, les pertes importantes pour la CDU ont coïncidé avec des victoires tout aussi importantes pour les Verts, ainsi qu'avec une proportion stable des voix pour le Parti libéral-démocrate (FDP). Il est donc question aujourd'hui d'une possible coalition « tricolore » entre le Parti social-démocrate (rouge), le FDP (jaune) et les Verts. Tout à coup, il devient réaliste d'envisager un changement de gouvernement à Berlin.

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j. von Hettlingen Mar 27, 2021

Joschka Fischer says Angela Merkel will step down in September after 16 years in office. It may be hard for Germans to imagine their country governed by someone else. But disappointing results in two regional elections on March 14 have raised doubts about the potential for her CDU to remain in power. With the party suffering from corruption scandal and growing public dissatisfaction over its handling of the pandemic, it is no longer unthinkable that the next coalition government would be formed without the CDU.
According to the author voters in Baden-Württemberg and Rheinland-Palatinate sent the message that Merkel’s “era of lofty talk and no action is over,” and that the federal election in September will usher in a new era in German politics, which would move away from her “quietude, a feature that German voters, having re-elected her three times, obviously appreciated.” But she was also criticised for the lack of political dynamism, not standing up to the fierce resistance from onservatives, who have restricted her wiggle room to reform.
“After such a long period of complacency, it is no surprise that the country is now facing massive structural challenges.” Due to years of frugality, Germany has a budget surplus. Yet its infrastructure is crumbling. Merkel’s government had failed to increase investments in roads, railroads, and broadband internet, fearing it would amass new debts at the expense of future generations. If Germany wants to remain competitive in the coming decades, it “will require huge investments in research and development, as well as modernization of education systems.”
The author says Germany abandoned “nuclear energy after the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan…Merkel had reversed a decision to phase out nuclear power just weeks before,” in order to boost her party’s chance to win in Baden-Württemberg, which had elected a “green” premier. In 2015 she opened Germany’s doors to refugees fleeing violence in Syria and other parts of the Middle East. “But these achievements were exceptions that proved the rule.” Nevertheless the influx of refugees had contributed to the rise of right-wing parties across Europe.
It remains to be seen whether Germany will lead Europe to compete with the US and China in the coming years. Yet “the greatest challenge,” however, lies in “greening” the economy, “while also safeguarding workers and preserving social cohesion. Here, the task is too large to manage at the national level. It will have to be done collectively, at the European level, through a European Union that has developed into a global power in its own right.” This requires much political will.
Trump’s departure offers the Biden administration the life-saving chance to salvage America’s decades-long relationship with its allies. Indeed, “a well-functioning transatlantic alliance will be crucial for protecting their interests” on both sides of the Atlantic. “But to strengthen that relationship, Europe will have to share more of the security and political burden and do its part to address the challenges introduced by China’s rise.”
The recent regional elections in Germany showed “strong gains for the Greens and a stable share of the vote for the Free Democrats (FDP). Hence, there is now talk of a possible “traffic light” coalition between the Social Democrats (red), the FDP (yellow), and the Greens. Suddenly, a change of government in Berlin seems like a realistic possibility.”
It may be premature to speculate as the country is still six months away from the September election. Much can happen that could change the dynamics on the ground. It remains to be seen whether Merkel’s designated successor, the “unconvincing leader, Armin Laschet” will beat the CSU’s more charismatic Markus Söder in a face-off.
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