Une victoire à la Pyrrhus pour Angela Merkel

BUDAPEST – Du côté de l’Allemagne, le drame de la crise de l’euro est terminé. Le sujet a à peine été évoqué lors de la dernière campagne électorale allemande. La chancelière Angela Merkel a fait ce qu’il fallait pour garantir la survie de l’euro, et cela au moindre prix possible pour l’Allemagne – la crainte d’une contribution trop importante du pays lui ayant conféré le soutien des Allemands pro-européens, comme de ceux qui souhaitent voir la chancelière préserver les intérêts de l’Allemagne. Ainsi Angela Merkel a-t-elle sans surprise obtenu la réélection de manière écrasante.

Il y a là cependant une victoire à la Pyrrhus. Le statu quo de la zone euro n’est ni acceptable, ni nécessairement maintenable. Les économistes du courant dominant qualifieraient sans doute cela d’équilibre inférieur ; personnellement, j’utilise le terme de cauchemar – un mauvais rêve qui engendre actuellement une souffrance immense, laquelle pourrait pourtant être facilement évitée si les conceptions erronées et les tabous qui la sous-tendent étaient dissipés. Seulement voilà, seuls les pays débiteurs ressentent la douleur, tandis que les États créditeurs continuent d’imposer ces tabous et idées fausses.

C’est ce qu’illustre la question des eurobonds, dont Angela Merkel a précisément fait un tabou. Ils constituent cependant la solution évidente à la cause profonde de la crise de l’euro : le fait qu’une adhésion à l’euro ait exposé les obligations étatiques des pays membres à un risque de défaut.

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