Os Desafios Mutáveis da Economia Mundial

NOVA IORQUE – À medida que 2013 termina, os esforços para reanimar o crescimento nas mais influentes economias mundiais – com a excepção da zona euro – estão a ter um efeito benéfico em todo o mundo. Todos os problemas que pairam sobre a economia global têm um carácter político.

Depois de 25 anos de estagnação, o Japão está a tentar revigorar a sua economia encetando um programa de alívio quantitativo a uma escala sem precedentes. É uma experiência arriscada: um crescimento mais rápido pode fazer subir as taxas de juro, tornando insustentáveis os custos com o serviço da dívida. Mas o Primeiro-Ministro Shinzo Abe prefere correr esse risco a condenar o Japão a uma morte lenta. E, a julgar pelo apoio entusiasmado do público, essa é também a opinião dos Japoneses.

Em contraste, a União Europeia está a caminhar para um tipo de estagnação de longa duração da qual o Japão tenta desesperadamente sair. Está muito em jogo: os Estados-nação podem sobreviver a uma ou mais décadas perdidas; mas a União Europeia, uma associação incompleta de Estados-nação, poderá facilmente ser destruída.

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