L’Economia Globale in Evoluzione

NEW YORK – Mentre il 2013 volge al termine, gli sforzi per rilanciare la crescita delle economie più influenti del mondo - con l’eccezione della zona euro - stanno avendo un effetto benefico a livello mondiale. Tutti i futuri problemi dell’economia globale sono di carattere politico.

Dopo 25 anni di stagnazione, il Giappone tenta di rilanciare la propria economia, dando avvio ad un allegerimento quantitativo su una scala senza precedenti. Si tratta di un esperimento rischioso: una crescita più rapida potrebbe far salire i tassi di interesse, rendendo i costi del servizio del debito insostenibili. Ma il primo ministro Shinzo Abe preferisce correre il rischio di condannare il Giappone ad una morte lenta. E, a giudicare dal sostegno entusiastico del pubblico, così è anche per il giapponese medio.

Al contrario, l’Unione Europea si dirige verso il tipo di stagnazione di lunga durata da cui il Giappone cerca disperatamente di fuggire. La posta in gioco è alta: uno stato-nazione può sopravvivere ad un decennio di crecita perduta o più, ma l’Unione Europea, un’associazione incompleta dei stati-nazione, ne potrebbe facilmente uscire distrutta.

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