Une économie mondiale en pleine mutation

NEW YORK – Tandis que l’année 2013 touche à sa fin, les efforts de relance de la croissance fournis au sein des économies les plus influentes de la planète – à l’exception de la zone euro – engendrent un effet bénéfique dans le monde entier. Il convient par ailleurs de noter combien les difficultés qui s’annoncent pour l’économie mondiale revêtent aujourd’hui un caractère politique.

Après 25 années de stagnation, le Japon s’efforce de redynamiser son économie en procédant à un assouplissement quantitatif d’une ampleur sans précédent. Il s’agit là d’une expérience risquée : l’accélération de la croissance pourrait en effet faire grimper les taux d’intérêt, rendant ainsi intenables les coûts du service de la dette. Le Premier ministre Shinzo Abe entend néanmoins accepter ce risque, plutôt que de condamner le Japon à une lente agonie. Et à en juger par le soutien enthousiaste de l’opinion publique, le Japonais ordinaire en ferait sans doute de même.

Par opposition, l’Union européenne s’oriente peu à peu précisément vers cette stagnation prolongée dont le Japon tente si désespérément de s’extraire. Les enjeux sont ici considérables : si les États-nations sont assez solides pour survivre à une décennie perdue voire plus, l’Union européenne pour sa part, en tant qu’association incomplète d’États-nations, pourrait facilement y succomber.

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