De verschuivende wereldeconomie

NEW YORK – Terwijl 2013 tot een einde komt hebben inspanningen om de groei te doen herleven in ’s werelds meest invloedrijke economieën wereldwijd, behalve in de eurozone, voordelige effecten. Alle problemen die er op de loer liggen voor de wereldeconomie hebben een politiek karakter.

Na 25 jaar stagnatie probeert Japan zijn economie te versterken door aan kwantitatieve versoepeling te doen op een schaal die geen precedent kent. Het is een riskant experiment; snellere groei zou de rentetarieven kunnen opdrijven, wat de kosten van kapitaaldiensten onhoudbaar zou maken. Maar premier Shinzo Abe neemt liever dat risico dan Japan tot een langzame dood te veroordelen. En aan de enthousiaste steun van het publiek te zien is de gewone Japanner het hier mee eens.

De Europese Unie is in contrast hiermee op weg naar het type langdurige stagnatie waaruit Japan wanhopig uit probeert te ontsnappen.  De inzet is hoog; natiestaten kunnen een verloren decennium of meer overleven; maar de EU, een incomplete associatie van natiestaten, kan er makkelijk door vernietigd worden.

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