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Poslední na nohou

LONDÝN – V moderní geopolitice jako by mnohé zapadalo do děje Hry o trůny; řada zemí je pod tak silným politickým a ekonomickým tlakem, že jejich jedinou nadějí je, že se jejich soupeři zhroutí dřív než oni. Tamní vlády proto pevně lpí na moci a zneužívají vnitřních slabin protivníků.

Prvořadým příkladem je ruský prezident Vladimir Putin. Jeho nedávná tažení v Sýrii a na Ukrajině se mohou jevit jako činy geopolitického bukanýra. Příčinou jeho avanturismu je ale domácí slabost. Ruská anexe Krymu například byla do velké míry pokusem zajistit Putinově režimu obnovenou legitimitu po zimě nespokojenosti, během níž do ulic vyšli demonstranti na protest proti jeho návratu na post prezidenta.

Konkurenční mocnosti – především Spojené státy a Evropská unie – zavedly sankce v naději, že rozšíří trhliny v ruské elitě a odhalí skutečnost, že Putin své hospodářství nediverzifikoval do oblastí mimo odvětví ropy a plynu. Putin naproti tomu doufá, že se ruská ekonomika udrží nad vodou tak dlouho, než se zhroutí Ukrajina. Aby postup uspíšil, Kreml neopomíná tahat za všechny páky destabilizace: zahájil vojenské vpády, manipuluje ukrajinskou politikou, využívá energetického vydírání a spustil informační válku.

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